Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022026 260820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    142.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  17.0  22.3  25.1  24.1  26.3  29.3  25.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  21.0  27.0  25.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 118.6 112.4 112.4 104.8  99.4  97.7  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 107.0  38.0  23.0   7.0  38.0  54.0  13.0  F  F  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  52.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   8.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        8.9%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.3%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       10.5%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.3%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%        2.0%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        2.0%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        3.0%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 CP022026 260820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    142.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  17.0  22.3  25.1  24.1  26.3  29.3  25.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  52.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   8.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%