Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022026 260821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    144.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  25.9  24.0  22.5  25.2  23.1  23.9  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  10.0  15.0  32.0  25.0  31.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 112.4 112.4 104.8  99.4 101.2  97.7  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  56.0   0.0   0.0  37.0  27.0  30.0  36.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   9.0   2.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        1.0%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        0.7%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        1.7%        1.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 CP022026 260821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    144.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.