Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022026 260821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    145.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  21.8  24.2  25.6  23.6  22.2  19.7  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  11.0  22.0  32.0  25.0  30.0  15.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 112.4 104.8 104.8 101.2  97.7  99.4 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  12.0  52.0  42.0   5.0  23.0   0.0  45.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  50.0  49.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  10.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        0.7%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.4%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.5%        1.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 CP022026 260821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    145.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.