Rapid Intensification Guidance CP022026 260821 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 146.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 25.3 26.5 27.5 21.6 20.3 20.4 16.2 N N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 28.0 30.0 26.0 28.0 13.0 25.0 40.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 99.8 99.8 99.8 94.4 96.2 94.4 98.0 101.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 35.0 25.0 28.0 50.0 62.0 52.0 34.0 U N U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 59.0 57.0 57.0 56.0 54.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 3.0 1.0 -2.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.4% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 7.8% 2.3% 5.0% 70kt / 48h 2.3% 0.7% 1.5% 65kt / 72h 2.7% 2.1% 2.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.02 CP022026 260821 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 146.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.