Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022026 260822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  25.2  26.8  24.5  21.3  17.8  16.4  16.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  29.0  26.0  22.0  24.0  10.0  27.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.8  94.8  96.6  91.2  93.0  93.0  94.8  96.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  24.0   1.0  54.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   6.0  10.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        4.6%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        1.6%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        1.3%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        1.0%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        8.2%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        2.5%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.4%        3.9%        7.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        1.6%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        3.3%        2.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.06

 CP022026 260822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.