Rapid Intensification Guidance CP022026 260822 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 148.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.70 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 26.2 24.6 26.9 21.0 19.7 18.3 22.1 N N N N N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 27.0 24.0 24.0 16.0 21.0 32.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.8 96.6 91.2 91.2 93.0 91.2 96.6 100.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 66.0 58.0 52.0 33.0 44.0 4.0 3.0 26.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 58.0 59.0 55.0 52.0 52.0 51.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 9.0 10.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 N U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.4% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.8% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 9.2% 2.9% 6.0% 70kt / 48h 2.9% 0.6% 1.8% 65kt / 72h 2.2% 1.6% 1.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.94 CP022026 260822 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 148.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.