Rapid Intensification Guidance CP022026 260822 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 150.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 37.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 26.9 25.9 21.8 21.8 19.7 21.7 29.1 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 21.0 24.0 14.0 17.0 32.0 27.0 26.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.2 86.2 86.2 88.0 86.2 91.6 95.5 99.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 26.0 26.0 21.0 -7.0 25.0 35.0 -1.0 N U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 53.0 51.0 54.0 55.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 6.0 1.0 7.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 3.5% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 5.4% 2.9% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 55kt / 48h 7.8% 2.3% 5.0% 70kt / 48h 2.3% 0.9% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 0.9% 1.6% 1.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.88 CP022026 260822 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 150.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.