Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022026 260823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    152.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  24.2  21.2  21.6  19.4  21.0  28.5  33.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  15.0   8.0  17.0  31.0  26.0  34.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         91.2  93.0  93.0  94.8  96.6  98.5 106.5 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  12.0 -22.0   6.0  17.0  20.0  13.0  25.0  N  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   8.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        0.2%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.2%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.88

 CP022026 260823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    152.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.