Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022026 260823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    154.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  22.8  24.3  24.2  20.4  25.9  29.3  31.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  16.0  27.0  25.0  26.0  54.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         93.0  93.0  94.8  96.6  98.5 104.4 108.6 112.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -20.0  13.0  13.0  21.0  25.0  21.0 -19.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   9.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        0.3%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        0.7%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.96

 CP022026 260823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    154.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.