Rapid Intensification Guidance CP022026 260824 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.20 156.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.9 23.9 18.8 18.2 27.1 28.4 28.0 28.0 N N N F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 22.0 31.0 23.0 26.0 57.0 37.0 37.0 U U U U U N U U Potential [kt] 99.8 101.6 101.6 103.5 107.4 113.6 115.7 115.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 18.0 37.0 31.0 23.0 40.0 40.0 -8.0 -8.0 U N N U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 53.0 52.0 54.0 52.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 6.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 4.4% 0.4% 2.4% 70kt / 48h 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 2.4% 0.9% 1.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 CP022026 260824 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.20 156.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.