Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022026 260824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  18.8  18.4  24.2  31.2  26.8  30.0  30.0  N  N  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  29.0  25.0  18.0  50.0  55.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.6 106.6 108.5 108.5 114.4 118.6 122.9 122.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  26.0   9.0  49.0  33.0 -27.0 -22.0 -22.0  U  U  U  N  N VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  12.0   4.0   5.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        0.4%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        0.3%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.0%        1.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.12

 CP022026 260824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.