Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022026 260824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    159.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  17.0  24.2  29.3  30.1  30.1  30.1  30.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  20.0  18.0  30.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        106.6 108.5 110.5 112.4 118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  29.0  32.0  42.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%        0.5%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        0.4%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%        1.5%        5.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.22

 CP022026 260824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    159.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.