Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022026 260824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    161.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  25.5  31.0  31.1  31.1  31.1  31.1  31.1  F  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  19.0  37.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.5 110.5 112.4 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  51.0  54.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   7.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.8%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h       13.7%        0.8%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        0.7%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       15.5%        2.3%        8.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 CP022026 260824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    161.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.