Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022026 260825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    162.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  29.4  30.0  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  43.0  63.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.5 114.4 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  56.0  36.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.5%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h       17.3%        1.2%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.9%        1.1%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h       20.7%        3.6%       12.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 CP022026 260825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    162.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.