Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP032026 261025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    178.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    519.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.2  44.1  46.0  45.6  46.7  45.6  50.5  72.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  24.0  37.0  43.0  38.0  44.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.3 127.0 127.0 124.6 122.3 120.1 120.1 117.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  26.0  22.0  12.0 -16.0 -36.0  20.0 128.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0 -11.0 -20.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h       57.1%        2.7%       29.9%
 30kt / 24h       57.1%        0.7%       28.9%
 35kt / 24h       57.1%        0.6%       28.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 CP032026 261025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    178.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    519.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.2  44.1  46.0  45.6  46.7  45.6  50.5  72.8  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0 -11.0 -20.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%