Rapid Intensification Guidance CP032026 261026 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 177.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 406.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.9 44.6 41.5 39.5 42.1 34.2 42.1 60.7 VU VU VU U VU U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 25.0 30.0 40.0 60.0 43.0 32.0 36.0 U U U N N N U U Potential [kt] 127.0 127.0 124.6 124.6 124.6 122.3 120.1 120.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 35.0 10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -38.0 89.0 106.0 U N U U U VU F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 62.0 61.0 57.0 53.0 55.0 58.0 65.0 N N N U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 20.7% 2.8% 11.8% 30kt / 24h 20.7% 0.8% 10.8% 35kt / 24h 20.7% 0.7% 10.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.2% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.24 CP032026 261026 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 177.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 406.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.9 44.6 41.5 39.5 42.1 34.2 42.1 60.7 VF VF VF F VF F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 62.0 61.0 57.0 53.0 55.0 58.0 65.0 N N N F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%