Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP032026 261026 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    176.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    311.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.7  43.5  39.9  39.6  38.0  39.2  50.4  50.4 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  32.0  52.0  61.0  47.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 124.6 124.6 124.6 122.3 120.1 120.1 120.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0   6.0   5.0 -19.0 -62.0  52.0 112.0 112.0  N  U  U  U VU  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        1.2%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        0.3%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        0.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 CP032026 261026 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    176.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    311.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.7  43.5  39.9  39.6  38.0  39.2  50.4  50.4 VF VF  F  F  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%