Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP032026 261026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    176.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    270.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.8  40.1  41.6  41.1  33.1  39.1  48.4  48.4 VU  U VU VU  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  32.0  43.0  50.0  54.0  44.0  38.0  38.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 132.0 132.0 132.0 129.6 127.3 127.3 127.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  12.0 -24.0 -22.0 -14.0  81.0 106.0 106.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  61.0  68.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 CP032026 261026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    176.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    270.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.8  40.1  41.6  41.1  33.1  39.1  48.4  48.4 VF  F VF VF  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  61.0  68.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%