Rapid Intensification Guidance CP032026 261026 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 176.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 248.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.0 42.2 40.3 37.2 37.8 43.5 43.5 43.5 VU VU U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 23.0 25.0 28.0 59.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U N N N N Potential [kt] 134.3 134.3 134.3 132.0 132.0 129.6 129.6 129.6 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 -23.0 -24.0 -41.0 47.0 94.0 94.0 94.0 U VU VU VU N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 54.0 52.0 52.0 55.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.38 CP032026 261026 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 176.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 248.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.0 42.2 40.3 37.2 37.8 43.5 43.5 43.5 VF VF F F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 54.0 52.0 52.0 55.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%