Rapid Intensification Guidance CP032026 261027 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.20 176.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 192.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.6 37.8 35.7 36.2 42.8 52.7 52.7 52.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 28.0 37.0 50.0 59.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 U U U N N N N N Potential [kt] 137.0 137.0 137.0 137.0 134.6 132.3 132.3 132.3 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 3.0 -35.0 11.0 113.0 106.0 106.0 106.0 U U VU U F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 50.0 52.0 56.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h -0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.32 CP032026 261027 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.20 176.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 192.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.6 37.8 35.7 36.2 42.8 52.7 52.7 52.7 F F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 50.0 52.0 56.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%