Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260712 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    166.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  14.7  14.0  16.9  19.7  19.1  20.0  26.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  63.0  58.0  55.0  50.0  59.0  80.0  92.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        132.9 132.9 132.9 132.9 132.9 137.3 142.0 142.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  61.0  73.0  76.0 122.0  98.0 100.0 119.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%       30.5%       19.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%       15.4%        8.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%       13.6%        7.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       10.0%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       56.2%       33.2%
 55kt / 36h        6.4%       35.9%       21.2%
 55kt / 48h       48.5%       25.2%       36.8%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       36.6%       30.9%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       66.2%       64.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 CP902026 260712 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    166.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  14.7  14.0  16.9  19.7  19.1  20.0  26.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%