Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260713 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    167.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  16.6  16.0  19.1  19.6  19.6  21.5  27.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  73.0  74.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        132.9 132.9 132.9 132.9 137.3 137.3 142.0 135.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  96.0  97.0 100.0 138.0  95.0 133.0 154.0  N  F  F  F VF  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       12.6%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       26.1%       16.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       10.2%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h       49.5%       25.9%       37.7%
 70kt / 48h       25.9%       15.5%       20.7%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       46.1%       54.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 CP902026 260713 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    167.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  16.6  16.0  19.1  19.6  19.6  21.5  27.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%