Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260713 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    166.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  26.5  24.3  19.4  17.4  18.4  15.8  13.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  47.0  21.0  14.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.1 132.3 132.3 132.3 130.1 130.1 130.1 125.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  64.0 104.0  75.0  40.0  79.0 120.0 140.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  73.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       16.1%       10.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        5.6%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        4.7%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        4.2%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%       30.8%       18.9%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       12.7%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h       26.8%       12.9%       19.8%
 70kt / 48h       12.9%       13.3%       13.1%
 65kt / 72h       32.5%       37.3%       34.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 CP902026 260713 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    166.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  26.5  24.3  19.4  17.4  18.4  15.8  13.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  73.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%