Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260713 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    166.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  21.0  17.7  14.1  15.2  12.5  12.1  18.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  45.0  16.0  12.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 125.7 130.1 125.7 125.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  73.0  67.0  46.0  81.0 106.0 122.0 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  71.0  68.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.7%       26.2%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%       12.6%        8.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%       11.2%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        8.6%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.1%       50.2%       29.7%
 55kt / 36h        6.7%       31.0%       18.9%
 55kt / 48h       42.0%       24.3%       33.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.3%       31.1%       27.7%
 65kt / 72h       37.3%       53.3%       45.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 CP902026 260713 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    166.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  21.0  17.7  14.1  15.2  12.5  12.1  18.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  71.0  68.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%