Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260714 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    166.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  17.7  14.9  14.5  13.5  16.7  16.3  18.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  41.0  15.0  12.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 125.7 125.7 125.7 121.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  60.0  31.0  29.0  85.0  77.0 145.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  F  N VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       12.9%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        5.0%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.8%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       26.9%       16.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       11.6%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       42.0%       24.3%       33.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.3%       13.1%       18.7%
 65kt / 72h       39.0%       33.0%       36.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 CP902026 260714 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    166.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  17.7  14.9  14.5  13.5  16.7  16.3  18.3  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%