Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260714 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    167.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  17.3  15.7  14.3  17.9  20.8  21.3  23.2  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  21.0  12.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 125.7 125.7 121.5 121.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  45.0  56.0  42.0  81.0  96.0  89.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%       15.8%       10.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        6.5%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        5.1%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        4.2%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       27.6%       16.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%       12.2%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       33.6%       18.1%       25.9%
 70kt / 48h       18.1%       10.9%       14.5%
 65kt / 72h       23.3%       21.6%       22.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 CP902026 260714 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    167.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  17.3  15.7  14.3  17.9  20.8  21.3  23.2  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%