Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    167.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  14.9  12.9  14.0  17.9  14.6  21.6  20.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  72.0  66.0  41.0  13.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 127.9 125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7 121.5 121.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  44.0  58.0  59.0  76.0  93.0  53.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       20.5%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        9.4%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        7.7%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.2%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       34.7%       20.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       17.5%       10.9%
 55kt / 48h       35.4%       19.8%       27.6%
 70kt / 48h       19.8%       17.7%       18.7%
 65kt / 72h       20.6%       27.2%       23.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 CP902026 260714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    167.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  14.9  12.9  14.0  17.9  14.6  21.6  20.5  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%