Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260714 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    166.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  13.2  12.8  14.4  19.6  17.6  16.9  13.8  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  28.0  19.0  14.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  12.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7 121.5 121.5 115.5 117.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  58.0  60.0  20.0  56.0  32.0  31.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       12.7%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.1%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.0%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       20.7%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        8.2%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       16.3%        6.6%       11.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        6.9%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.6%       15.3%       11.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 CP902026 260714 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    166.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  13.2  12.8  14.4  19.6  17.6  16.9  13.8  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%