Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    166.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  13.7  11.6  16.8  16.7  17.1  14.2  13.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  13.0  12.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 125.7 125.7 121.5 119.4 115.5 115.5 113.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  64.0  54.0  54.0  61.0  38.0  31.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%       10.0%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.7%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       18.1%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        6.8%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h       16.7%        6.7%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.7%        6.0%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h        9.5%       13.7%       11.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 CP902026 260715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    166.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  13.7  11.6  16.8  16.7  17.1  14.2  13.2  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%