Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260715 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    165.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  11.2  15.3  13.5  18.0  16.7  11.4  13.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 125.7 121.5 121.5 115.5 115.5 115.5 113.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  63.0  84.0  91.0  45.0  24.0   3.0  -7.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        9.1%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.3%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       15.2%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        5.6%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h       17.2%        6.8%       12.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.8%        5.0%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        8.7%       12.8%       10.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 CP902026 260715 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    165.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  11.2  15.3  13.5  18.0  16.7  11.4  13.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%