Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP902026 260715 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    165.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  16.9  15.3  17.0  18.9  14.5  17.1  24.6  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  22.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.7 121.5 121.5 119.4 115.5 111.6 113.5 115.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  57.0  57.0  45.0  14.0  25.0  25.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        7.5%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.7%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       12.2%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        4.3%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%        3.9%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        3.7%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%        8.5%        6.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 CP902026 260715 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    165.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  16.9  15.3  17.0  18.9  14.5  17.1  24.6  U  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%