Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP912026 260715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.80    152.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.1  23.2  24.4  28.2  35.7  33.2  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  29.0  28.0  26.0  24.0  25.0  35.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 132.3 137.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  -3.0 -24.0  26.0  38.0  43.0  68.0  96.0  U  U VU  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.9%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.7%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.6%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        4.0%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 CP912026 260715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.80    152.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.1  23.2  24.4  28.2  35.7  33.2  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%