Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012026 260602 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  10.9  13.5  14.0  17.4  19.9  23.0  25.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   7.0   8.0   8.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.1 127.9 127.9 127.9 121.5 121.5 113.5 106.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   148.0 129.0 123.0 110.0 125.0 113.0  71.0  27.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.5%       23.0%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        9.8%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        9.0%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        8.9%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       32.5%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%       14.5%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       34.6%       17.5%       26.0%
 70kt / 48h       17.5%       14.8%       16.1%
 65kt / 72h       20.5%       19.1%       19.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 EP012026 260602 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  10.9  13.5  14.0  17.4  19.9  23.0  25.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%