Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012026 260603 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  20.5  19.9  16.5  20.1  19.8  20.5  20.6  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   7.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 107.4 107.4  96.2  86.1  84.6  81.5  81.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  86.0  88.0  54.0  53.0  11.0   7.0 -17.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        2.8%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       16.5%       11.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        7.2%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        6.7%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        6.1%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       24.1%       14.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%       10.8%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       19.9%        8.2%       14.0%
 70kt / 48h        8.2%        5.6%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        4.6%        3.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 EP012026 260603 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.