Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012026 260603 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  21.7  18.9  19.4  22.0  19.5  21.3  20.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   8.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.5 107.4 105.5  96.2  84.6  81.5  81.5  81.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  49.0  57.0  39.0  10.0  44.0  -7.0 -16.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  56.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        9.3%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.8%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        3.3%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        2.6%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       12.1%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%        3.0%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        2.4%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 EP012026 260603 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.