Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012026 260604 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  21.9  22.5  21.7  21.3  24.4  27.9  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   4.0   6.0   7.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.8  96.2  86.1  86.1  84.6  81.5  81.5  81.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  28.0   3.0  15.0   3.0   2.0  -6.0 -21.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        0.4%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.72

 EP012026 260604 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.