Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012026 260604 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 130.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 47.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.5 24.8 24.9 26.7 26.1 26.0 20.3 16.1 N N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.2 84.6 84.6 81.5 81.5 89.3 89.3 98.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 31.0 8.0 53.0 1.0 -24.0 -32.0 -54.0 U N U N U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 57.0 57.0 54.0 55.0 54.0 50.0 46.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 1.3% 0.2% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.34 EP012026 260604 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 130.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.