Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012026 260605 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  23.2  25.9  25.3  28.2  24.2  19.4  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.6  78.0  78.0  76.5  86.0  84.3  93.0  93.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  42.0  49.0  42.0  -7.0 -21.0 -56.0 -48.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  52.0  47.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        0.1%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.02

 EP012026 260605 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.