Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012026 260605 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  31.3  29.1  28.8  22.0  16.9  14.7  16.2  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  13.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.5  76.5  86.0  86.0  84.3  93.0  93.0  93.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  49.0  37.0  30.0 -10.0 -39.0 -58.0 -78.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.1%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.16

 EP012026 260605 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.