Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012026 260606 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.00 134.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.3 29.5 28.6 27.5 19.5 17.4 15.2 14.1 U N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 9.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 12.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.0 91.0 91.0 91.0 98.0 98.0 98.0 105.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 68.0 49.0 15.0 -7.0 -48.0 -38.0 -69.0 -36.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 53.0 52.0 49.0 46.0 47.0 45.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.38 EP012026 260606 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.00 134.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.