Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012026 260606 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 134.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 51.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 27.3 24.0 20.0 18.4 15.8 13.7 14.2 N N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 10.0 10.0 11.0 15.0 13.0 12.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.0 89.3 89.3 98.0 98.0 98.0 105.5 103.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 3.0 -20.0 -37.0 -2.0 -53.0 -37.0 -40.0 U U VU VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 42.0 44.0 43.0 43.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 3.1% 0.8% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 1.4% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.54 EP012026 260606 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 134.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.