Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012026 260606 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    134.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  25.3  20.1  19.6  16.2  14.1  14.7  17.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  12.0  15.0  16.0  14.0  12.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.0 104.8 103.0 103.0 103.0 110.5 110.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -27.0 -44.0 -18.0 -29.0 -77.0 -59.0 -24.0  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  44.0  45.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        0.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.76

 EP012026 260606 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    134.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.