Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012026 260607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  20.2  18.1  17.8  16.8  13.8  15.8  19.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  11.0  13.0  15.0  14.0  12.0  13.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 104.8 103.0 103.0 103.0 110.5 108.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0 -35.0 -20.0   4.0 -44.0 -48.0 -55.0 -10.0  U VU VU  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  43.0  42.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  48.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        0.5%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.86

 EP012026 260607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.