Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012026 260607 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    135.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     35.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  18.2  17.1  16.0  12.9  15.7  19.5  20.2  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  13.0  15.0  15.0  13.0  12.0  15.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 110.5 108.5 108.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0 -25.0   1.0  -6.0 -81.0 -40.0  -7.0   6.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  41.0  40.0  41.0  43.0  44.0  45.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.2%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        1.3%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        0.9%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.92

 EP012026 260607 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    135.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.