Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012026 260607 18UTC Storm Located at : 11.40 135.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 30.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 18.3 17.1 14.0 16.3 22.3 19.7 20.9 N F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 13.0 18.0 21.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 103.0 103.0 110.5 110.5 108.5 108.5 114.4 114.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -6.0 0.0 -61.0 -99.0 -35.0 -3.0 -12.0 -27.0 U U VU VU VU U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 42.0 44.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 49.0 52.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.5% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 3.9% 1.1% 2.5% 70kt / 48h 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 1.0% 1.9% 1.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 EP012026 260607 18UTC Storm Located at : 11.40 135.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.