Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012026 260608 00UTC Storm Located at : 11.30 136.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 31.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 17.3 14.8 15.2 19.2 21.2 22.6 21.7 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 15.0 20.0 21.0 23.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 108.0 108.0 115.5 115.5 115.5 113.5 119.4 117.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 -83.0-105.0 -59.0 3.0 -32.0 -35.0 0.0 U VU VU VU U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 41.0 42.0 44.0 47.0 47.0 50.0 55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.6% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 3.1% 0.8% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 1.1% 1.6% 1.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.08 EP012026 260608 00UTC Storm Located at : 11.30 136.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.