Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022026 260607 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    100.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  31.5  37.6  39.3  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  32.0  27.0  21.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  93.0  92.0 104.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  71.0  64.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%       12.2%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.2%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       10.9%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        4.6%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        6.7%        4.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 EP022026 260607 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    100.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  31.5  37.6  39.3  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  71.0  64.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%