Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022026 260608 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     99.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  38.7  42.7  42.4  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  34.0  32.0  29.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0 109.0 114.0  83.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  65.0  61.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        6.9%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.8%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 EP022026 260608 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     99.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  38.7  42.7  42.4  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  65.0  61.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%