Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022026 260608 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     99.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  41.6  41.2  37.3  27.5  27.5  27.5  27.5  U VU VU  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  30.0  25.0  23.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0 103.0  67.0  16.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.8%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.6%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        4.0%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 EP022026 260608 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     99.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  41.6  41.2  37.3  27.5  27.5  27.5  27.5  F VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%