Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022026 260608 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 99.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 71.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 141.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.6 41.3 35.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 U VU U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 28.0 24.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 78.0 41.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 F N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 59.0 56.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 1.3% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 3.8% 12.4% 8.1% 30kt / 24h 1.3% 4.8% 3.1% 35kt / 24h 1.3% 4.8% 3.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 3.4% 1.7% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 10.7% 5.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 3.1% 1.6% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 3.2% 1.7% 70kt / 48h -0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 3.4% 1.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.34 EP022026 260608 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 99.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 141.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.6 41.3 35.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 F VF F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 59.0 56.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 N F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%